Hallo! With ConTeXt ver. 2006.09.26, figure numbering is working as expected.
You need the option \setupfloats[numbering=nocheck]
is not longer needed, but
you can see a bad sideeffects by figurenumber=nocheck in my example
this sideeffect is visible both, with nocheck and without this option (numbering=yes resp.).
<example> \setupfloats[numbering=nocheck] \starttext \placefigure{}{\framed{Blub}} \placefigure[page][]{}{\framed{Bautz}} \placefigure{}{\framed{Bla}} This were \rawnumber[figure] figures by now! \setnumber[figure]{8} We want to count on with \rawnumber[figure]. \placefigure{}{\framed{Plong}} figurenumber is incremented to \rawnumber[figure]. \stoptext </example>
The number of the figures are set as they appear in the text and this did not work well when one figure is set later as another one typed later in your code.
Wolfgang